Sensex in accelerating bear market - ends down 278pts – may fall below 10,000 in the next three months
Raju Subramanium
Jun. 23, 2008

The Sensex is showing signs of trouble for along time. For the first time the analytic models have turned bearish for Indian stocks. That suggests a bubble has collapsed from close to 21,000 level. A retracement of 61% is inevitable. That takes Sensex down to below 9,000. If it is a major multidecade bear market, the 9,000 will be breached without trouble and Sensex will eventually fall below 5,000.

The Sensex opened with a negative gap of 148 points at 14,423. Minor pull-back in opening trades saw the index touch a high of 14,511.

The quantitative models are also very bearish. Sentiment models are improving as common Indians are learning the reality of stock market investments as they lose their soft money from outsourcing money in US dollars. The index, however, soon slipped deeper into red and touched a low of 14,163 - down 408 points from its previous close. Selective buying at lower levels helped the index recover some of its losses.

The Sensex finally ended with a loss of 278 points at 14,293.

The market breadth was extremely negative - out of 2,697 stocks traded, 2,222 declined, 425 advanced and 50 were unchanged today.

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