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With sharp rise in consumer spending and fall in unemployment Bank of Japan closer to rate increase than ever – time to go long on yen?
Sam Adelton
May 28, 2007
The Japanese yen is at the bottom. The Japanese economy is rapidly expanding domestically while the exports are hurting due to slowdown in US economy, Japan’s biggest customer base.
Japan's jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a nine-year low and households increased spending for a fourth month in April, suggesting consumers will help extend the economy's longest postwar expansion.
The Bank of Japan is closer ever to raise the rates than ever. This can be very bullish news for Yen. At the same time, the weakness in housing and manufacturing is making the Federal Reserve think deeply if a rate cut is needed.
Japan's largest manufacturers said in March they faced the worst labor shortages in 15 years. In Aichi prefecture, home to Toyota Motor Corp. and its suppliers and subcontractors, there were more than two jobs on offer for each applicant last month.
This is a clear sign that the deflation and disinflation are on the verge of ending in Japan while the same starts in America and rest of the world.
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