The true nature of deflation and underemployment is manifested in small business confidence and lack of enthusiasm
Fred Day
Apr. 19, 2007

The small businesses represent the core of the economy. Its business confidence strongly and positively correlates with the consumer confidence. An analytic model shows that small business’ confidence is at its lowest ever. It also shows that small business’ confidence leads the consumer confidence by six to nine months. Simply put, look at the small businesses desire to expand at this time and you can easily predict the level and nature of consumer confidence in the next six to nine months.

The true nature of deflation and underemployment is manifested in small business confidence and lack of enthusiasm. The effect has started influencing the consumer confidence. The consumers are skeptical now borrowing any further. Most of the rise in earnings is coming from investments. The real growth in wage is actually negative if you are able to adjust the Government with lost jobs and wages cuts due to outsourcing and unfair trade practices by China and other emerging nations.

The true nature of deflation and underemployment is manifested in small business confidence and lack of enthusiasm
Fred Day
The true nature of deflation and underemployment is manifested in small business confidence and lack of enthusiasm. The effect has started influencing the consumer confidence.
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The mortgage meltdown is far from over – a mere $10 billion pledge to by sub primes by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will not help
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The extent of the bubble was beyond imagination. The echoes are still out there since the bubble did not burst yet. The ninety-year banking cycle says banks are going belly up again. Well these things do not happen over night – it takes time.
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Rising Philadelphia Fed data for April signal start of cyclical manufacturing upturn within a large secular deflationary downturn
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After some more ‘breathing data’, the manufacturing GDP will register clear negative growth. The effect will spill over into Asia and Europe, which will eventually register even larger negative growth.
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Improving March Leading Indicators confuses Fed again in lowering rates in the middle of deflation and deep recession
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The deflation and recession is stealth. It is even confusing the Fed who can lower rates and takes the deflationary recession out.
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Falling March Housing Starts is a major concern – real estate far weaker than many can even imagine
Marla Guthrie
After the real crash between now and 2012, the laws will be enacted when people will be asked to put down at least 30% before they can get a mortgage.
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