Housing and manufacturing will continue to give encouraging signals this week but quantitative and analytic models send warning signals
Special Correspondent
Jan. 21, 2007

The housing market is stabilizing. The new homers sales will be higher. It will come out 1056K versus 1047K. The lower home prices are having some positive effects. The real estate brokers are reporting that unsold inventory of old homes are not rising any further. Things are forming bases before moving up again. The move up this summer though is questionable. The amplitude of the cyclical rise may be small.

The manufacturing sector is showing sign of some life as Europe and Asia keeps buying manufactured goods. The export from U.S. will rise faster than expected.

While the data will show apparent soft landing of the economy, the quantitative and analytic models are sending warning signals. It is a sinister calm before the big storm.

The oil, gold and real estate can recover somewhat. But these are all chasing a mirage. It is a cyclical bull move of unknown proportion within a massive secular bear market driven by debt and bubbles. Anytime bubbles burst, it takes several decades before real bull market can arrive.

Housing and manufacturing will continue to give encouraging signals this week but quantitative and analytic models send warning signals
Special Correspondent
While the data will show apparent soft landing of the economy, the quantitative and analytic models are sending warning signals. It is a sinister calm before the big storm.
READ MORE>>

During deflation brokers are hurt most – the dooms day for real estate, stock, bond and futures brokers
Special Correspondent
Real estate, stock, bond and futures brokers will see some worst of their days during 2007-2012. People will demand zero commissions and the brokers may be wiped out. During deflation Internet based zero cost transaction will become popular.
READ MORE>>

After oil crash, a fall in Gold prices below $550 an ounce will confirm nasty deflation in the world economies – effects on stocks
Special Correspondent
The oil and commodity crash of 2007 is significant. It is giving early signals of deflation. Commodity deflation always comes last. The wage deflation is already there.
READ MORE>>

Restatement of corporate profits (GE), lay offs (Motorola), lower guidance (Intel, IBM) and lack of pricing power are all signs of deflation and lower future prices of stocks, gold and commodities
Special Correspondent
US regulators objected to the way General Electric is showing its profit. The epidemic is wide spread. The corruption and lack of appropriate governance is so wide spread among corporations, you must have the right CPA firm to make it in Wall Street.
READ MORE>>

Inflation adjusted Dow never made a new high - Stock market counting time before starting the next leg down in continuation of the bear market that started in Year 2000
Special correspondent
The real bear market started in 2000. Not many will understand that till year 2012. If you adjust the Dow for inflation and plot the same, you will find that Dow did not make a new high.
READ MORE>>

Copper, oil and CRB say contrary to popular belief deflation is calling the shots now
Special correspondent
If the scenario is right, the median home prices may fall to $25,000 before the financial meltdown is over. Gold can trade below $100 per ounce.Dollar index will head for 300. Today it stands at 85.
READ MORE>>

Will oil go to $60 or $40 from here? The hedge fund effect
Special Correspondent
We have to conclude that most likely oil will hit $20, cause major bankruptcies and then climb upwards far above $80.
READ MORE>>

MORE ARTICLES >>