Dow is in the last five bull years of the 60 year market cycle – a long term top is very close as baby boomers start retiring
James Adam
Jan. 8, 2007

Dow is in the last five bull years of the 60 year market cycle – a long term is very close as baby boomers start retiring the demographics and geopolitics create market cycles. Stock market is known to be in long-term sixty-year cycle. The bull phase go on for thirty years and then the bear phase takes the market down for thirty. Analytics when fed with data from 1800 to 2006, shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average is in the process of topping out in the bull phase that started in 1981. The top can come anytime between now and 2010. From now 2040 stock market will little if any inflation adjusted basis.

The Dow most likely will top around 16,000 before 2010. After that it will crash to 9000 and then move up and down. The down ward trend will continue till 2040. The scenario matches with demographic data. As the bay boomers retire, stock market will be under severe pressure. The effect of Social Security and Medicare delinquencies will also take its toll in the stock and bond markets.

By 2040, stocks may hover around 12,000 level or shed higher. That is a very negative return inflation adjusted basis.

Dow is in the last five bull years of the 60 year market cycle – a long term top is very close as baby boomers start retiring
James Adam
The Dow most likely will top around 16,000 before 2010. After that it will crash to 9000 and then move up and down. The down ward trend will continue till 2040. The scenario matches with demographic data.
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Asian stocks continue to drop as interest rate hikes slowdown economies – finally stagflation has reached India and China
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