The dooms day for mortgage bankers and mortgage brokers as long bonds get ready to send chill in the Wall Street
Alan Hersey
Jan. 1, 2007

The analytics and quantitative models were manifesting trouble for a long time. The bond market was supported by immense buying power of the Chinese and the Japanese central banks. Now the moment of truth has come. The million-dollar question is can these Asian central banks stop ten-year note yield to rise to 9% or more.

The dollar is getting bullish on that possibility. Given the fact that the Japanese economy is doing better, there is little reason for Japan to keep buying long bonds and sell Yen. Time may have come when these Asian central banks will stop manipulating their currencies and keep buying US treasuries.

If the Asians specially the Chinese decide to bring parity in currencies, their trade surplus will disappear in no time. They will be net seller of treasuries instead of buying them.

The commodities, gold and asset inflation all point to hyper inflation although hidden from CPI and PPI data. Time may have come for a sharp rise in rates.

The chill can be severe for mortgage bankers, brokers as the refinance market will collapse. The effect on real estate will also be severe as the buyers will just be pushed out of the market.

The dooms day for mortgage bankers and mortgage brokers as long bonds get ready to send chill in the Wall Street
Alan Hersey
The chill can be severe for mortgage bankers, brokers as the refinance market will collapse. The effect on real estate will also be severe as the buyers will just be pushed out of the market.
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Spitzer promises to bring ethics back in NY – will NJ Governor do the same? Small businesses suffering from bad Governance and ridiculous taxes from Democrats
Sonia Joshi
NJ small businesses are suffering. The taxes have gone ridiculously. Believe it or not, if you have a corporation in NJ, whether you make any money in a year or not, you have to pay the state $750. It used to be $50 seven years back.
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U.S. Treasuries had their best half- year since 2002 on hope Fed will cut rates in early 2007 but technical charts say the long term rates may be heading 9%
Sonja Anderson
The commodities and gold are telling the real story of inflation and the long terms rates are now heading for serious jump.
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A reversal in Factory Orders data will pull bond yields and dollar exchange rates up
Marla Guthrie
On January 4th, at 10 AM, the Factory orders data will manifest a big reversal. The last data saw a slump – a -4.7% drop. This one will show a 1.4% jump.
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Construction spending increased signaling a temporary cyclical boom in real estate within a massive secular bear market
Sam Adelton
When you analyze it coupled with the last new home sales figures, it becomes clear that real estate is ready for some sort of an upturn in the short run.
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Business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality saw the most job growth – real estate and manufacturing losing jobs
Alan Hershey
The million-dollar question is will manufacturing sector, business infrastructure investments and real estate turn around to compensate for the slack. If they do, we will see a soft landing. Otherwise we are headed for a deep recession.
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