India looks for a 10% growth but the country may see negative growth in the next fifteen years
Shekar Maity
Oct. 7, 2006

Things always happen contrary to expectations. This time it will not be any different.India looks for a 10% growth but the country may see negative growth in the next fifteen years. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh exhorted policymakers on Saturday to aim for 10 percent economic growth, but said the goal would only be met if the country's infrastructure improves. ``A growth rate in the vicinity of 10 percent is not impossible to achieve,'''' Singh said at a meeting of top officials and business leaders held to discuss ways to boost infrastructure development.

Indian economy is growing at the rate of just above 8% a year. There are resons that this econmic growth will falter and as a matter of fact reverse to a shrinking economy for reasons.

Indian budget deficit is high. Balence of payments is one of world's worst. The country has trade surplus with almost no nation. India is expecting to grow on the basis of imported jobs and artificially lowered currency rates. These can sustain for a while is a bubble situation. When the bubble bursts, things collapse like a busted balloon. That is excatly what is going to happen in the next fifteeen years.

After that however, India will reengineer itself as an economically independent nation with patriotic capable Indians in power. The transformation will not be easy.

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