''FAHRENHEIT 9/11'' IS NEGATIVE FOR BOTH REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS – IT IS MAKING 2004 ELECTION MORE COMPLEX THAN 2000
Neal Rodricks, Special Correspondent
July 22, 2004

You may think ''Fahrenheit 9/11'' is negative for George Bush. According to popular media this is making Republicans nervous seeing that four weeks and $94 million later, the film is still pulling in moviegoers at 2,000 theaters around the country, It is true that it is in the process of settling down in the main stream America. But is Kerry really gaining from this? Not quiet. The movie is actually making more voters look towards Nader as an alternative. And that makes Kerry lose some votes. It can cause a 3 to 5% shift of votes from Bush and Kerry to Nader. Now no one really knows who gains from this shift. While the movie is outright anti-Bush, it also raises some questions on Bush bashing and some might even feel sympathy for Bush. Is George Bush all-negative? Did he not do anything good for America? Kerry and the democrats may rest in peace with the movie for now but in reality they are losing voters more than Bush. 

The movie really shows that the political system in Washington just does nor work in today’s context. It is anti-politician. Audience with shrewd eyes will understand that the movie is depicting negative sides of both Republicans and Democrats. When the movie points out that only one Congressman/woman has his/her son/daughter in military, it really hits Republicans and Democrats.

The movie can also make some voters just not go to the polling booth. If that happens, no one knows who lost how many votes. The net result of this is that Poll Pandits may be proved to be totally wrong because they did not consider the right percentage of Bush voters and Kerry voters who will not vote. That will throw their normal math in the bin. Statistical inferences do not work when an external factor like this cause external unknown and unaccounted pressures on computation.

The race is already tight. On top of that this may bring more uncertainty. Most likely this will make voters stay home or vote for Nader. Some may decide to vote for Kerry but that percentage is unknown.

One interesting thing might happen. Democrats may decide to move slightly to the left and detach themselves from the typical establishment. That can trigger voters to abandon Nader or staying away from the polling booth. That will definitely be more positive for Kerry. On the same token, Bush may decide to point out that the movie shows his apparent relationship with the Saudi Royal Family but fails to show the same with Clintons as found recently and so on. 

The bottom line is that this movie has made the Election 2004 way more complex than the Kerry camp is thinking. While Bush camp is already on the defensive, Kerry camp should watch out for trouble too!