According to international think tanks, computer models are predicting that if there is an all out nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan, India will survive. The model is based on tactical and nuclear weapons on both sides. The effect will be devastating for the world. 100 million people will die in the subcontinent. Eastern and Southern parts of India will be little affected. The jet streams will carry nuclear derby to the Western hemisphere. And far more will die due to cancer and other radioactive exposure. Pakistan will not exist within first six hours. The model takes into account that Pakistan will launch all its nuclear missiles within first 45 minutes towards India and China will stand pat watching the war. The worst effected areas will be Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Chandigargh. The model assumes that Pakistan will avoid pushing its nuclear arsenal into areas where large Muslim population is concentrated. For example safest place in India to survive this war will be Kashmir. 

The after effect will be devastating though. Crops and monsoon will disappear for many years. Mass exodus of people will take place in the east to Mianmar, Bangladesh and even into Nepal and China. 

Nothing will be left of Pakistan. India may face massive glacial flood from the North due to excessive heat. The scientific and technical infrastructure will be destroyed in India and it will take at least ten years to build. Pakistan may lose 80% of its population and India may lose 20% of its population. The effect is far stretched than one can imagine. Both Pakistan and India possess far superior nuclear arsenal than those demonstrated in 1998. The after effect will be nuclear storm and may take 15 years for the world to recover from it.

Indian military installations will be targeted. But many of the same are underground. Pakistan central command is also well underground near Afghan-Pak tribal areas. India will try to demolish the Pakistan central command with Special Forces and air force strikes. 

The model also predicts that in a nuclear confrontation one side can stay intact if it can demobilize and paralyze the central command structure controlling the nuclear arsenals of the other side fast. Panic, excitement and nervousness will dominate the command control structure at that time. It is possible that one side will delay launching the counter attack just like India delayed deploying air force in Kargil war for quite some time in 1999. Even today India repents that decision. If that is repeated, India can also get wiped out.

In a nuclear confrontation two things happens - first size of a country matters and second, the war is won or lost in the first three hours. Hesitation in counter attacking will be devastating for either side. Based on past performance and probability, there is sixty eight percent chance that Pakistan will strike first. If India hesitates in launching the counter attack, it will be devastating. On the other hand if India can use intelligence mechanisms on the ground as well as satellite intelligence in getting an early notification of the attack, Pakistan’s attack can well tackled.

The problem in a nuclear confrontation is the fact that whichever side shows complacency or kind-heartedness during the war will lose.

The tension is high. Both India and Pakistan have their hand on the trigger, so does China, USA, UK, France and Russia. This is a new phenomenon never tested anywhere in the world. During second world war the US a-bomb on Japan was devastating because of the surprise it produced on Japanese population. Given Pakistan’s history and geopolitical structure, it may attempt some day in surprising India. However, if that happens, the world is not going to leave Pakistan alone.