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US headed for a major depression – how does it impact
you?
Sonia Jabbar, Special Correspondent
The lowest interest rate in US did little to boost the economy. The US economy is going to teach a solid lesson to world economists as it sinks into depression over the next few years. The process has already started. The latest catalyst came from skyrocketing Petroleum prices. The Federal Reserve has pumped unprecedented liquidity in the system and with tax reduction for the rich, it is bonanza time for a few to buy boats, new homes, new cars and so on. However, every thing is being bought on credit.
Corporations cannot sell and have lost pricing powers. For the last few years they have practiced “give a ways”. For example, you do not need to pay interest in buying a new car. The car companies must give you zero percent interest rate to sell the car to you. You do not need to pay the principle back any more; you can buy million dollars worth of home and pay only interest for the next five years. Prices of homes, essential commodities have skyrocketed because Americans took a new mortgage out on their home that went up in paper value by many times in the last ten years. There is a craze about getting into the best Universities, which cost fortunes these days. The only jobs available are burger flipping minimum wage jobs, nursing and health care jobs (aged –senior citizen population is increasing every day due to demographic effects of baby boom generation), teaching jobs in K-12 schools, marketing jobs and real estate brokering jobs.
Most of these jobs are temporary in nature. US employers have found
a new phenomenon - "just in employment" - in other words, we
employ you when we need you. Large Corporation cannot sell, therefore, have resorted to shipping jobs to India and China and bring the goods and services back to sell them in USA which
is flushed with temporary money from easy liquidity of the Federal Reserve
Bank.
Before a major depression and total catastrophe, things look awfully good. It is just like before a major storm, a calm persists in the horizon, which can be most uncanny. US economy is going through that phase. No one is talking about the scary fact that there are no real jobs and prices have gone up because of demands from Asia (mainly India and China), Iraq war and easy availability of money in US. The high oil price has triggered the nasty “D” word. Depression is not a desirable word. The whole world economy depends to some extent on US economy. The unemployment can rise to 25% in a few years in US and US stock market can lose more than 90% of its value. If that happens all
the outsourcing jobs will disappear. The IT and Technology sector has shown weakness since March of 2000. It is at that time when the Great Depression of the new millennium really started. According Elliot Wave theory, the final wave of prosperity ended at that time. The prosperity started way before the Roman civilization. The Technology sector is ready to drop dead in the Depression time. It is very difficult to find a job in US in these days. A false sense of security and panic of missing upcoming boom in the economy is making US Corporations hesitant in firing any more of their employees. The housing market will get flooded with foreclosure and bankruptcy. The banks will fail and will be bailed out by the US Government. The dollar will plummet first followed by other world currencies. The final meltdown will come when the world loses its faith on US dollar and American financial system. Silver and Gold (especially silver) price will go up thirty times. World will run to put their money away from paper denominated assets. Real estate will totally collapse because unfortunately today it has become a mechanism for artificially inflated paper denominated asset.
The world at that point can turn violent. Because in tough time, the powerful will try and dominate – like in the jungle the most powerful persists, others either hide or die. India’s major problem is lack of crude oil and massive Petroleum based industrialization that has taken place. How many farmers in India remember to plough the fields without the petroleum driven tractors? There will be massive
unemployment among educated middleclass in India. The reason for going and getting a degree from a college or University will disappear in all countries.
When will this end? Elliot wave theory does not give any hint. The excessive abuse of the financial system will take its time in undoing the same. The last depression in USA was short-lived for a few years, however, generations remembered the hardship. When all is done, people will stop buying anything on credit. Old fashioned financial and ethical value system will return. The problem is that the last depression according Elliot Wave Theory was a major pull back within an unprecedented bull market of prosperity. This one is the major trend down for many years.
How would you survive? Depends where you live. If you are in India. Live a simple life and stop buying on credit. These creditors will eventually disrupt your life when you cannot pay. The standard of living in India is so modest, the impact will be minimal. One thing you should not do is to elevate your life style based on huge earning you currently have from working for US or other Western companies or BPO jobs. If you are in US or other Western countries, it may be wise to think about returning back to India and live a modest life. There can be exceptions. For example, if you can adapt to new demands in US, you will be fine. Bankruptcy attorneys will have plenty of jobs and prosperity. If you decide to stay in US make sure you try and take a Government guaranteed job. Government will be the last to go bankrupt. Even if they do, they have the capability to go on deficit budget and keep printing money. In general there will be some sectors and professions that will get least impacted. It is time to transition into them. It is time to take action to defend your future.
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