Sometimes it is better to lose the power and sit on the sideline till all dust clears. India is on the verge of entering a period of such era. The budget deficit, sky rocketing petroleum price and a major slowdown in Western economies will cause major problem for the Indian and Chinese economy. According Economic Research Institute, a business cycle think tank, a major worldwide recession if not depression is absolutely eminent. India will lose the most in this recession due to lack of indigenous petroleum resource and over dependence on Western Outsourcing jobs. In addition, al-nino effects will produce major draughts in India. The heat wave is already on in the northern India. The ongoing international war on terrorism and Iraq war will further strain the World and Indian economy. On top that the new Government faces the expectations of Pakistan, US and Kashmiri separatists. The urban middle class is hungry for luxury life style. Add all these up, you have the full recipe for a disaster for the new Congress – left front coalition. BJP will sit in the opposition and criticize all set backs and hick ups in India. This will only make BJP more popular. It will also help BJP to make sure that core Hindu constituency comes back to control the party. 

The Petroleum price may reach $100 per barrel in the next few years. Currently it trades at $41 per barrel. It has risen 38% in the last six months alone due to demand in India and China. If this happens, Indian economy will collapse and inflation will sky rocket. The food and other prices will double or triple in no time. Major loss of jobs will take place not only in India but also worldwide. The Congresses’s honey moon may end very soon. While India has a fantastic future, the coming five years will be disastrous. “It is a complete blessing in disguise for BJP”, says Akshay Sinha, Director of Economic Research Institute. The other problem is that the Congress Government will have serious trouble in keeping the coalition intact. The individual components of the coalition are fragile and disorganized. Major ideological differences exist between Congress, CPM, SP and Laloo Parsad Yadav. Most likely the coalition will fall apart within one year – especially with SP, Left front and DMK not joining the Government.

It is the best thing that has happened to BJP. The new BJP is getting rejuvenated with core Hindu fundamentalism and Parampara. While the hard and dirty work will be done by Congress in the next few years, within two years or before the new BJP will ready to come back to power – yes this time without any alliance.